Reserved spot for DauT
Daut: Download the rec, go to the POV of the player you think is daut. Check scroll speed in view lock mode -> confirm or deny that it is daut.
Reserved spot for DauT
Daut: Download the rec, go to the POV of the player you think is daut. Check scroll speed in view lock mode -> confirm or deny that it is daut.
To me this honestly feels like cheating and removes all the fun, even if everyone is free to do that if they want.I also intentionally refuse to download recs and check things like language or viewlock. I try to keep the viewer experience because that's how I enjoy guessing. So none of that will be displayed, even if it's obviously the easiest way to guess who's who.
From watching his stream a couple times, Barles has a tendency to queue up a lot of farms in his mill instead of using autofarms, so if a lot of wood suddenly goes missing without anything being constructed, it could be Barles.To me this honestly feels like cheating and removes all the fun, even if everyone is free to do that if they want.
Anyway, I added BacT and Barles. I'm definitely not satisfied with these two. I don't know enough about Barles, and BacT is a player that always annoyed me as a viewer because I often feel like he does not do what he should to win and does not play to his strengths. I'm completely open to insights from people who can give me informations on both.
The game was honestly so different in 2018. Anything pre-DE is something I don't want to use too much because there has been so many meta changes, balance patches, QoL improvements and a general rise in level.I believe BacT's last really big 1v1 achievement was beating Tatoh to win the ECL Middle East stage back in 2018. You can watch that on EscapeAOE's YouTube page if you haven't already.
In any case, the random brackets make it hard for me to justify giving predictions for how far each player should go. I think it'd be a bit more expedient to judge how many opponents a given player has favorable matchups against, winnable matchups against, and significantly unfavorable matchups against. For instance, I'd favor Villese against all the other qualified players except possibly ACCM or Vinchester. Those I'd rate as winnable matchups.
Against qualified players, I think he has a winnable match against Tatoh, but not really any of the other seven. On other settings I'd say he has a winnable or even favorable matchup against Dogao as well, but Dogao seems to overperform in Hidden Cup compared to other events. I suspect because there's so many water maps, but regardless, I think Dogao is too strong here, as are Viper, Yo, Liereyy and the rest.
To me this honestly feels like cheating and removes all the fun, even if everyone is free to do that if they want.
Anyway, I added BacT and Barles. I'm definitely not satisfied with these two. I don't know enough about Barles, and BacT is a player that always annoyed me as a viewer because I often feel like he does not do what he should to win and does not play to his strengths. I'm completely open to insights from people who can give me informations on both.
I knew that one was controversial. I think many would consider him top 8 coming into the tournament but I don't. I honestly would have said he was in contention for top 8 before the qualifiers started, but I found his performances against Classicpro and Laaaan below that. Classicpro and Laaaan played well, but Villese also lacked decisiveness and did not impress me with his strats in the maps including water which is a huge part of HC. The level still seems extremely close anyway and it's random seeding, so pretty much everyone can actually reach the semis with a good draw, a few good strats and a small detail going their way in a close game. But I have more faith in other players from qualifier. Not that this is the most important factor anyway.Top 8 players Villese has beat in tournaments recently:
Tatoh, Daut, Viper.
Players Villese has lost to in tournaments recently:
Yo, Hera, Lierry, Mbl.
He's in the mix for a top 8 spot, maybe even higher depending on how you weight the different games.
People will say "the settings the settings!!!" but when you're beating players of that calibre in tournaments it still counts for something. Those players are considered the best players because they win irrespective of the settings. Really surprising to see the doubt coming from so many people.
I think Mbl's mangonel micro is often ignored by most people, but it's actually really sick - I would say comparable or maybe even better than those of known "micro nerds" like LierreyHe can thrive in chaos and has very good micro of mangonels
Just finished reading all your guides, thanks for going to such detail. Would just like to add that ive noticed from watching theviper that he is almost always conscious of the relics and never ignores or forgets them (not syre how much that helps but should be something)TheViper
It's hard not to place him #1 going into Hidden Cup 4, especially when we remember he won his last 7 games in Hidden Cup 3. He has the experience, he shines on hybrid maps, he likes preparations, he is top 3 in micro, in macro, in preparation, and probably top 1 in game understanding. BUT he has a lot of issues in big tournaments recently. I still think he'd win, but as I said, I wouldn't be surprised if Liereyy wins it, or DauT, or even Hera. I would have been surprised if anyone else won it last year.
He should prefer hybrid maps, new maps and Islands. I don't see him picking Slopes for instance, when so many players thrive on this type of map.
He can adopt multiple styles, but is rarely all-in in tournaments. He likes to take it slow, to build a small lead and to snowball it with a superior macro and with a perfect control of the map to deny any comeback opportunity to his opponent. Notably, he tends to play safe castles in tournaments to secure his base.
However, he can switch his style if he thinks this is the best approach. The slower style is something he used to do when he was clearly better than the competition, he might have a new approach this time because he feels threatened. I'm curious to see what he will bring. He is theoretically a top-tier lamer and a top-tier towerrusher for instance, even if he does not seem to enjoy these styles.
He uses every page in the AoE book. He's not the only one (I mentioned that for Vinchester and Nicov), but his ability to adapt to the situation and to make the unusual transition or decision that just makes sense is usually unparalleled and allows him to often comeback.
His unit control might be below Liereyy's, but he's still super strong in micro. He's definitely less flashy than some, but he has an excellent useful APM.
He NEVER pushes deer. He often collects it long distance around the time he goes to feudal.
He has a very unique way of using his sixth villager. He tasks it to the second sheep, placed on the carcass of the first sheep. This stacks the two carcasses and reduces idle villager time by a few seconds when the 5 other villagers move from the first sheep to the second. I think he's the only one doing it that exact way, although someone mentioned the same for Villese.
He likes to disguise himself. I'd be surprised if he picks Yellow. Last year he tried to impersonate DauT, Vivi or TatoH. He may be less confident this time. However, when he's ahead, he can't resist adding some entertainement. The choice of green for Saladin and the War Elephants of last year were such a Viper move it was obvious it was him. Dave loves to make fun of viewers who said they were certain Saladin was Viper because Viper himself said he was trying to impersonate people: that's exactly why we were sure this was Viper. He's the only guy who would try to impersonate others, thus revealing who he is.
I'm 100% sure this isn't Barles. Barles would have picked archer civs and walled on Cross, I'm fairly sure. Both is too much. My bet for ACCM = Warwolf seems fairly solid: box formation abuse in G1 (using it with 10 units on one instance), inconsistent, picking meta civs and land maps. The 3-1 victory round 1 is also a possibility.Jacqueline is Villese and Warwolf is Barles.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBUgp9kqgQg
Villese played Mayans game on Arabia identical to game 1 (Wheelbarrow timing, eagles/crossbows, fwd siege) and same goes for Cross game with Huns. Also his draft matches with his draft patterns from qualifiers.
The draft is completely non-Jordan. Jordan's worst map is probably Cross and Warwolf first picked it. Jordan almost always picks Hideout, would likely pick Islands, would likely pick prepared new maps like Bypass. A player going Cross and Gold Rush is a player who plays a lot of ladder and likes Arabia-like map, not a tournament player who likes to prepare and strategize.Warwolf looks like Jordan to me I don't have any analysis though.
I'd argue Jacqueline is possibly Barles.Jacqueline is Villese and Warwolf is Barles.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBUgp9kqgQg
Villese played Mayans game on Arabia identical to game 1 (Wheelbarrow timing, eagles/crossbows, fwd siege) and same goes for Cross game with Huns. Also his draft matches with his draft patterns from qualifiers.