Hera might pick Gold Rush as a home map. He said on T90's stream that he loves the new version (didn't get picked up though). Just a shot in a dark, but could be a helpful reinforcing factor.
If anyone wants to help me with a little project (which would require looking at player recs/vods for a few things) for a video I'm making for HC4 main event and guessing players, shoot me a PM! Might need a bit of help but it'll be worth it.
Expected RO16 but can upset with good prep, may not have reached his ceiling yet.
Picking Islands and Hideout (also used Hideout in German Championship). Very likely to use the new maps and anything that’s oriented towards macro and build order in general.
Tendency to pick AOC civs, unusually picks Teutons. Picks Huns/Japanese over Lithuanians/Malians consistently for Cross or Bay for instance and values classic civs like Franks/Chinese/Aztecs/Vikings on Arabia.
Very prepared. Can be creative and unconventional. Tends to have a structure at home but can switch to unconventional compositions, land, sneak, forward, …
Generally less APM than the top players. Can have idle farmers, idle vills, take huge mango shots, does not quickwall, fails lures. However can have really good feudal micro if he’s only focused on that. Also tends to use staggered formation with knights.
Uses TC to weaken boar.
Scouts over pushing deer. Values scouting info a lot.
Takes relics relatively early.
Does not really like Smush or all-in pushes in general.
Gets townwatch early and expands very well with outposts. Values vision and scouting.
Expected RO16. Should bring good preparation but should struggle against top players. (I know that might be an unpopular opinion after his performances in KotD and RBW3, but I found him far from impressive during the qualifiers, and I think he was quite convincingly beaten in the semis of both these tournaments. The upsets he did against TaToH, DauT and Viper were upsets, I don't think he'll replicate them here, but I might be completely wrong).
Picked Gold Rush in all sets, but very likely to use the new maps/prepare strategies. (Edit: he actually also picked Gold Rush as a homemap in HC2 and HC3).
Values Aztecs and Vikings a lot (first picked and sniped Azt, sniped Vikings twice). Used Mongols and Indians on Slopes and Persians and Lithuanians on Bay: seems to value civs that can give an early eco lead there.
Unusually, him and Max used front-dock Galleys on Islands but both lost so they might change their mind.
Can go for very unconventional civs (Japanese on Hideout?) or strategies (ignoring water on Bay and opening Archery Range) to throw his opponent offguard.
About average APM and micro for the top 16.
Uses TC to weaken boar.
Tends to use siege-monks, with Aztecs but also with other civs (used Monks with Japanese vs Laaan).
Uses castles to expand. When ahead, controls most of the map and tries to starve the opponent instead of killing him swiftly (Laaan came back on Gold Rush and almost came back on Arabia in their set, a top 8 player could have won the Arabia game too).
Also, I could not confirm it, but someone said he tasks the sixth villager to a second sheep and not the first one.
Quick disclaimer: BacT is a player I have issues guessing. I found a few useful things but I feel like he can adopt various styles, and none of them is exactly unique. Just looking at his set against Dark, it goes in absolutely different directions with super meta clean snowball on Arabia, probably too passive/eco-oriented but still winning it on Slopes, and completely random, chaotic, all-in on Cross.
Expected RO16, tends to dominate qualifiers but to struggle against better players because of his style. Might pass one round if he faces a qualifier player, but should lose once he faces a top-player.
Generally picks civs with mobility: he drafted and used a lot of Mongols, Huns, Berbers, Tatars. His favourite clearly seems to be Franks: he first picked it in his 3 sets in the qualifiers and used it on Arabia the 2 times it wasn't sniped. He also used it on Arabia in HC2 main event and HC3 qualifiers, and first picked it twice in KotD. I don't see another player with that much of a focus on Franks.
Tends to play the land maps, never choses a map like Islands and does much better in the Arabia-like maps. Unlikely to pick a lot of the new maps. I would expect Gold Rush, Slopes, or that kind of map.
Very fast, even for a top 16 player. Excellent feudal age micro, very active with units and able to focus on multiple areas at once.
Can lack strategies and have questionable drafts. He often does weird and offmeta things, but I think his best games are the standard and meta ones, that's why I have a lot of issues predicting him. He almost lost against Lyx in 2020 and had more issues against Dark in the messy games than in the clean ones, yet he often picks all-in strats in main events.
Barles is a player I haven't seen a lot of because it's the first time he reaches a main event but I tried my best.
Almost certain to lose in RO16. To me, he is the least favorite of the 16 players: reaching HC4 is already his biggest accomplishment. And no offense to Barles, but if Hearttt does not kill 4 of his own units in his initial push on Hideout, Hearttt wins the game and the set 4-1 (still a deserved comeback overall, I don't want to throw any shade at Barles).
He prefers archer civs. Notably, he prefers Mayans on Arabia (2/3 in Qualifiers, but also in KotD and in HC3 qualifiers) and he chose a lot of Chinese, Vikings, Vietnamese, Ethiopians and Britons in drafts. He also notably used Portuguese to land and spam archers in his Islands game vs Hearttt, although I'm not sure he'll do that again.
More defensive playstyle than most: walls very early, often adds his houses behind his first layer of palissade walls, and stonewalls side of his base in lategame.
Still manually queues farms in mill so wood might suddenly disappear in lategame.
He has never made it past Ro16 in HC but he has improved a lot recently with much better tournament results and very solid ladder performances. He can still be inconsistent. I wouldn't be surprised if he can reach quarters with a good draw, but I still rate him around 10th.
He has had very weird and varying drafts making it hard to predict what he will chose. He played Saracens on Arabia in the first two rounds of qualifiers but did not even pick Saracens in his third round. He picked Indians on Slopes his first two rounds but not the third even if he had it in his draft. He is known for his love for Berbers but did not pick them in his first two rounds. He used them in his third round, but that's much less of a giveaway now. Berbers are a meta answer to the fact CA civs are meta. We've seen way too many people using Berbers in the qualifiers for it to be meaningful, even if a Berber pick on Arabia might still point at ACCM.
He always uses box formation.
He used a lot of forward siege to gain map control and he landed on Islands. He tends to play agressively in early Castle Age and to try to snowball the game. That may explain his preference for civs able to flood units or pressure in early Castle Age with 1 TC like Berbers, Aztecs, Saracens or Huns. Notably, he added a very early early ram in two of his siege pushes.
I've had conflicting version about weakening boars. I'm sure I've seen him do it and others said it too but he wasn't doing it vs Daniel.
He had a weird strat where he walled his entire pond on Slopes.
Vivi (aka FatDragon, aka the easiest player to spot)
Vivi has underperformed on DE, but I feel like he's coming back. We see him performing on ladder again; that's always been a strength of his but he wasn't in top 10 anymore during months and he's currently back on #2. If you check his profile he spent 3 months barely playing 1V1 on ladder between early november and late january, but now he's back grinding ladder and tryharding. I feel like his performance is coming back to his top level for Hidden Cup. I still think he'll have troubles beating the top players, but I came into the qualifiers thinking he might not make it in and I'm now firmly convinced he can upset people. With 10-1, he also had the best record of all the qualified players.
Unconventional civ choices are a typical giveaway: 3 Spanish in his 3 drafts in qualifiers and some unorthodox choices like using Magyars on Slopes or using Huns on Arabia. He also picked Vikings in all his sets and used them on Islands consistently, even into Portuguese. He seems to clearly believe they are the best water civ.
He can make things messy, but always with the purpose of booming behind it. He did not trush at all during the qualifiers but that's a possibility for the main event. He played a lot of forward siege and monks and applied pressure in multiple areas to make his opponent defend. Meanwhile, he booms with 4-5 TC when most of the other players would have less. He notably pushed with 4 mangonels and 9 (!) monks as Japanese on Cross while booming on 5 TC, he's pretty much the only player who would do that, especially with that civ and that map.
He delayed Castle Age to add 5 extra scouts when feudal war seemed over in 2 games, and caught his opponent offguard on his way to Castle Age.
He can have some very weird huge walls covering too much of the map, even if that does not make sense at all. He walled 1/3 of the map in his Arabia game vs Badboy even if he was Huns, and that almost costed him the game.
He's one of the only players who lamed during the qualifiers and he might do it again.
He can have a lot of idle TC, but he has a surprisingly small amount of idle eco when games are super messy.
For all these qualities, he can sometimes have sloppy micro and throw units randomly.
I thought he weakened boar with TC but I did not see it in qualifiers.
One of the players that might be wrongly guessed the most imo. He had already prepared very unorthodox strategies for the qualifiers, and I expect more for the main event. He feels super motivated and I think he could finally have a very good performance, unless he faces Viper again.
He only picked CA civs on Arabia in the qualifiers (Huns and Tatars) and played super open, but he lost 2 out of his 3 games there so he might completely change his mind.
He played multiple forward and unexpected strategies. He towerrushed a lot: with Bulgarians on Hideout, with Incas on Cross, with Byzantines on Bay. Interestingly, he always did it after losing a standard game. Similarly to Vivi, he then transitioned into a 4-5 TC boom. There are obviously differences, but that's something interesting to note.
He can also be very flexible in his strategies. He played the chaos into boom viviesque style, but also played more standard (especially on Arabia), and also did a 1 TC push on Slopes because he recognized he was behind, and he managed to come back. That's the kind of adaptability and gamesense that makes me confident in his performances.
I've been absolutely impressed by his idle TC stat now that we have Capture Age. He always has a SUPER low one. He had 2-3 times less in midgame than all his opponents, even if he had more TCs.
The easiest way to know if it's Vivi or Nicov if we see a towerrush into 5 TCs would be the micro. Nicov does micro a lot and very confidently.
He does not weaken boar with TC.
Now to talk about the memes: I guess everyone can forget upgrades and he can also have a serie of games where he does not do it. But he tends to do it more often. That wouldn't be my #1 way of knowing if it's him, but that can definitely help. It's not only the upgrades, it's the small details of the eco sometimes being messy. Having a rally point on a single tile of a gold pile resulting in 6 villagers taking gold from the same tile and bumping, having a poorly setup woodline and bumpages, and of course the late horsecollar, wheelbarrow, hand cart. Now that we have the idle TC stat, that's interesting to understand that his super low idle TC balances the fact he has a suboptimal eco. He tends to have more vills but less efficient vills.
Oh and yes, I feel like he resigned too early in his loss against Lyx. His situation was bad but not worst than Vivi's who also had Huns on Arabia vs Badboy and ended up coming back.
The most improved player in DE. Any result is possible, especially because I have a lot of faith in his water gameplay. I found him absolutely flawless vs Slam, and he's clearly my dark horse.
Has some extremely random drafts including the weirdest Arabia civs: his 3 Arabia games in the qualifiers were Goths, Sicilians and Incas. In KotD, he also used 3 Incas in 4 sets and other unusual civs for Arabia like Japanese or Byzantines. Interestingly, he can pick Incas to play them standard around their eagles and counter units.
Super strong on Islands, which is why I have so much faith in him. He demolished Belgium and Slam on Islands.
Capable of offmeta approaches and creative switches like going Elite Genitours as Berbers. He can adopt multiple styles too depending on the civs and the circumstances. He adapts well to the situation and thinks out of the box.
Pressures in early Castle Age, not the biggest boomer.
Resigns late, and only after trying something all-in to comeback like a castle drop, a huge raid, or a tech-switch.
Expected to get at least a quarters. With the level of preparation he has shown last year and his recent performances, he could honestly win it. He’s one of the contenders anyway.
Should be extremely prepared and share strategies with TatoH (and potentially Jordan, who seemingly practiced with everyone in GL). Very likely to use some of the new maps, especially the creative ones like Bypass. Unlikely to pick Islands, he never used it as a homemap.
Can play multiple styles, but may play a bit less archer civs. Performs very well with the cavalry civs and may pick a bit more infantry civ than the average player, especially Celts. Might add a civ like Bulgarians.
He tends to prefer a boomy style, but he can also play more agressive or forward if it suits the map and the game.
Does not weaken boar with TC. Daut does a weird thing when luring boar where he will set the gather point to a spot next to the boar and not on the boar itself, so his vil that spawns will be a "Villager" and not a "Hunter" with a bow.
Notorious for his fail micro, but not certain this is necessarily a good way to spot someone. DauT can micro perfectly well when he feels like it, and Liereyy can fail a split. I’d say DauT’s main feature is his refusal to micro when other players would try it. He’ll patrol the units in and focus on the macro instead to gain a lead elsewhere. Similarly, his castles are probably not the best way to recognize him because other players can fail castles. We see “DauT castles” every set. The truth behind the memes is that DauT can care less about the small details than some players. He does not try to play flawless.
He has an excellent read of the map and understands transitions perfectly. Viper might be the only player with more gamesense.
He has reached the finals of the last 3 main events so he clearly has to be a contender for finals this time, even if the settings suit him a lot less. My prediction would be another quarterfinals for him, just like last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins.
Obviously the king of micro and of archer civs. Quite easy to recognize because of his archers taking fights against skirms and outmicroing, his splits vs mangonels or his traps. Interestingly, he does not really like playing Cav Archers, as opposed to most players who are known for their micro. Generally does fancy micro, the exact opposite of DauT.
Might not have the best strategies/the best approach for the new maps. Way more likely to chose known land maps like Gold Rush or Slopes even if he can have a few plans. Should have practiced with Hera, those two might surprise. They have everything it takes to be a good water player or to create unique strategies. I'm certain they have invested the time, this Hidden Cup could either mark the return of Viper, or the confirmation that Liereyy is the new #1 (or anything else, obviously).
Interestingly picked Yellow and clearly tried to confuse viewers into thinking he was Viper in the past. That worked on T90.
Did not weaken boar with TC but I think he might work on this, he should have no issues doing it and he's the kind of players to like these small details.
After starting 2020 really strong, he has had less good results recently. I still think he’s a clear top 8 player but I’m not sure if he can really go further.
A flexible player able to adapt multiple styles, but mostly notorious for his love of meso civs and of Conqs/Camel Archers. I think he is the best meso player in the world with a perfect use of eagles to raid. He will probably put a lot of emphasis on Aztecs and may pick double meso or triple meso in his draft.
Does not necessarily make games extremely messy, but can add a few aggressive strats and can very often lame.
Tends to wall his base and rarely seems surprised by agression.
He is able of doing a 1 TC push with several civs, including monk and siege or strong UUs (the Spanish Hideout strat or Aztec pushes) even if he’s also perfectly able to boom into a strong cavalry civ. He might have interesting strategies for the new maps and I think the qualities of those strategies will determine how well he fares.
Introduced the weakening boar with TC trend at the highest level.
Very inconsistent depending on his level of preparation and how much he partied the day before. We can hope he is prepared and serious here, so he should be top 8. If he is fully committed, he can beat almost everyone.
Enjoys his trash units. Often has numerous spears and skirms in feudal.
Has very recognizable small walls not using the edges of the map, and sometimes not even the woodlines.
Tends to get housed more often.
Master Boar Lamer (I think Yo or Vivi might do it often during the tournament but MbL has a unique way of doing it with absolutely 0 hesitation, like it was meant to be).
Does not like new things: does not weaken boar with TC and still refuses to use auto-reseed.
Sometimes does semi-troll or BM moves even in very serious tournaments. He’s perfectly capable of doing a random outpost rush or to put a TC inside the enemy base which would be a dead giveaway.
Even if he would not admit it, he's actually really good with siege and monks. He can thrive in chaos and has very good micro of mangonels and monks.
More seriously, his lategame is very recognizable. He resigns very late, and prefers playing with skirms, halbs and siege rams, and with towers, especially BBT. He has a very nice use of his space and seemingly fits more farms then he could in a small corner of the map.
He has had issues in 1v1 tournaments on open maps recently but this is his chance to shine. Last year he had a perfect mix of unique strategies and clutch moves: his 3-2 win vs Liereyy was the set I enjoyed the most. However, I think several players have gotten better so I think he’ll have troubles going further than Ro8, but I’d like him to prove me wrong.
He is best known for his strategies, especially in hybrid maps. I don’t think anyone can predict what he’ll pick. Even on Arabia, he plays completely different styles judging by KotD and HC3. He has played the archer civs with an emphasis on Mayans even after the nerfs, but also an equal amount of cavalry civs and more unorthodox ones like Cumans on Arabia.
Despite his strategic approach, he is perfectly capable of microing, and is one of the best quickwallers in the world.
TatoH has a few recognizable traits (he usually shares with other GL players) like a focus on vision and scouting, a nice understanding of the map and an ability to expand. He likes to control the map with towers which is pretty unique to him (even if Viper tried to impersonate him in HC3).
Always performed in HC, passing at least one round. The overall level has risen and he has had poor results in 1v1, but quite like Tatoh, I think the settings heavily favor him.
He has a heavy emphasis on Chinese on Arabia (picked it 3 times out of 3 in HC3, and very often in KotD). Otherwise, nothing special regarding his drafts, we don’t know much of his current preferences but he tends to pick meta civs and to play standard and clean.
He is obviously the master of Islands. Water maps in general are his strong point. I don’t know what he thinks of water meta and what his preferences now are.
He likes to housewall and to use buildings in walls in general
I haven’t seen a recent enough tournament game to know what he does with boar-TC.
Expected second place, obviously. Memes aside, he clearly can be a contender. I think Liereyy and I have their chances to show that they can bring a top-tier level of preparation and create their own strategies, and I believe in them. I'd still rate Liereyy above Hera, but their sets have always been close.
Still would prefer the land maps, confirmed he hates Islands on T90's stream but that might just be mindgames. He spent A LOT of time practicing new things these last weeks with Liereyy, they both have what it takes to be top-tier Islands players now that Galleys are back in the meta so I wouldn't be surprised if he can perform on Islands even if we've never seen him do well there.
I hope he channels his inner self and plays Huns on Arabia, but I honestly think he'll stick to the more meta approach.
He's one of the few players in the tournament who might push deer over scouting in some cases, even in open maps.
Excellent micro and a love for traps (although Liereyy did more of them in HC3) and to quickwall (those marketwalls were a giveaway last Hidden Cup).
Preference for scout-line in general. This is a meme, but this is true: he likes to play scouts in feudal and does the hera snipes, and he likes to play 80-farms hussars in the lategame. However, he is capable of adopting multiple strategies. Whatever the strategy, his strength is in the APM and the multitasking: he's capable of hitting multiple areas at once, or to micro in feudal while having a clean eco.
Not sure what he'll do with boar and TC, I'm sure he made up his mind behind the scene.
It's hard not to place him #1 going into Hidden Cup 4, especially when we remember he won his last 7 games in Hidden Cup 3. He has the experience, he shines on hybrid maps, he likes preparations, he is top 3 in micro, in macro, in preparation, and probably top 1 in game understanding. BUT he has a lot of issues in big tournaments recently. I still think he'd win, but as I said, I wouldn't be surprised if Liereyy wins it, or DauT, or even Hera. I would have been surprised if anyone else won it last year.
He should prefer hybrid maps, new maps and Islands. I don't see him picking Slopes for instance, when so many players thrive on this type of map.
He can adopt multiple styles, but is rarely all-in in tournaments. He likes to take it slow, to build a small lead and to snowball it with a superior macro and with a perfect control of the map to deny any comeback opportunity to his opponent. Notably, he tends to play safe castles in tournaments to secure his base.
However, he can switch his style if he thinks this is the best approach. The slower style is something he used to do when he was clearly better than the competition, he might have a new approach this time because he feels threatened. I'm curious to see what he will bring. He is theoretically a top-tier lamer and a top-tier towerrusher for instance, even if he does not seem to enjoy these styles.
He uses every page in the AoE book. He's not the only one (I mentioned that for Vinchester and Nicov), but his ability to adapt to the situation and to make the unusual transition or decision that just makes sense is usually unparalleled and allows him to often comeback.
His unit control might be below Liereyy's, but he's still super strong in micro. He's definitely less flashy than some, but he has an excellent useful APM.
He NEVER pushes deer. He often collects it long distance around the time he goes to feudal.
He has a very unique way of using his sixth villager. He tasks it to the second sheep, placed on the carcass of the first sheep. This stacks the two carcasses and reduces idle villager time by a few seconds when the 5 other villagers move from the first sheep to the second. I think he's the only one doing it that exact way, although someone mentioned the same for Villese.
He likes to disguise himself. I'd be surprised if he picks Yellow. Last year he tried to impersonate DauT, Vivi or TatoH. He may be less confident this time. However, when he's ahead, he can't resist adding some entertainement. The choice of green for Saladin and the War Elephants of last year were such a Viper move it was obvious it was him. Dave loves to make fun of viewers who said they were certain Saladin was Viper because Viper himself said he was trying to impersonate people: that's exactly why we were sure this was Viper. He's the only guy who would try to impersonate others, thus revealing who he is.
I created 16 different posts for the 16 players. I'll edit them with my summary for every player. To keep this thread readable, try to PM me if you have suggestions or if you disagree with something. I had some issues so I was delayed, but I'm fairly confident I'll finish it all before Hidden Cup starts. You're also free to use my info/insights so long as you mention the source. Spread it on reddit, Discords or whatever you want. If it helps people enjoy the guessing game, especially the new people, it's good for everyone.
I also intentionally refuse to download recs and check things like language or viewlock. I try to keep the viewer experience because that's how I enjoy guessing. So none of that will be displayed, even if it's obviously the easiest way to guess who's who.
So far I posted Jordan and Villese because I finished reviewing their whole qualifiers and a few other tournaments/rated games. I'll add others step by step: ADDED ALL!
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