If Ganji was actually Robert Guiscard, then IMO Jordan is more likely to be Pachacuti than Sumanguru.
I like your list, my only problem is the chinese community allegedly recognized Sigismund as Yo with a very high certainty. I'd love to hear more details about this by the way.Okok, I did not have time to do a deep-dive analysis as I wished, I sadly have to work today and tomorrow, but wanted to get my ideas ordered before quarters.
With closer levels and playstyles, and no Arabia G1 every set, and more civ bans, definitely harder than last time, as expected. I had locked my 16 picks with a solid 80% overall confidence in HC4 just after Ro16, I guess this time it will have to wait. I hope quarters fix some doubts and unlock dominoes.
I'll still lock 11 names, more or less certain, unless something cataclysmic happens in quarters that make me reconsider everything.
With decreasing certainty (more or less, sometimes grouped it when one guy unlocked another):
Otto Everything = MbL
We all agree, won't explain
King Stephen = DauT
We all agree, won't explain
Gajah Mada = TaToH
Cumans approach of Bypass is pure TaToH
Abuse of demos in Evac (and no other hero displayed such a love of demos)
Matching draft even if many HMs he might have wanted were picked by opponent
General playstyle and level, clear top 4 player
Only reason why people started doubting that was to force Yo into a player who won first round, weak argument
Jean Bureau = Mihai
Banned Mudflow first, first ban of Mihai throughout qualifier
Obvious nerves game 1 and 2, big mistakes of first S-tier tournament
Two Fox strats (Conqs on Slopes, palissades on Cross)
Mihai BO on Cross
Stonewalling of Cross like Mihai in one qual game
General level matches
Only issue is the "sec, drop" of Vinch but too weak to question that. As Mihai faced Vinch in qualifier, and Vinch said it 5 times during their set, can be a planned troll to say "sec, drop" if he has to pause.
Vasco da Gama = Hera
Classic HC4 aM map draft
General feeling of level and controlled gameplay
Abuse of box formation and Hera farms (both Viper and Liereyy have another pattern)
Seems too prepared/too knowledgeable/too creative to be Liereyy
Was my feeling during the set, after seeing everything the only decent Hera match unless Hera is Jan Zizka doing elaborate trolling and pretending to be Viper (more on that later)
Very small chance that this is Liereyy or Hearttt, and that I missed Hera, but we'll know after quarters
Robert Guiscard = Jordan
We're getting into controversial territory here
Pure Jordan Map Draft, the only one to go for both Islands and Bypass, and also to ignore the new maps in draft. Gold Rush is a classic map where Jordan had success (won his MbL game there in HC4 for instance).
Pure Jordan Civ Draft as well
Defensive playstyle, a bit sloppy in the feudal defense, trying to setup for Castle Age, decent lategame: Jordan is not a feudal player, he CANNOT be Sumanguru based on that High Tides Feudal domination, stop that nonsense please!
Clueless on the new map, matches idea of unprepared Jordan
Relatively weak performance, but no first game nerve, as opposed to some other players who had subpar performances, points at a weaker but more experienced player
Jordan farms (saw them on Evac, need to check if I see them on Bypass, would be a hard tell)
Can do the BF boar lure, did play a lot of BF teamgames in 2023 and loved trying to bring 6 boars at once or so
I agree that in isolation this could absolutely be Ganji, this is just by far the best Jordan match imo, and there is also a better Ganji match imo
Pachacuti = Ganji
Here it is
Cross firstban, ban of Ganji throughout qualifier
Prioritized all the available closed maps and then defaulted to Arabia last, pure Ganji map draft (more than Jordan)
Focus on Eco/Cav civs, Ganji civ draft
Overwhelmed by the feudal pressure, and especially shaky game 1, matches a weaker, slower, newer player
Did willingly go into monks a lot (as opposed to Robert Guiscard) BUT yes, main issue is that he had a very poor use of them. Main issue for Ganji, but imo this is nerves. The willingness to go into these strats is a better tell than the fact that he misexecuted them.
I can see a 5% chance of me having switched Ganji and Jordan, not an awful Jordan call either.
Gregory = Vinchester
Map draft decent for him with prepared hybrid map and Mudflow there
Very prepared draft in general with all the water bans to FP his water civ, strategic mind
Goths strat is not the DauT one, settled on same civ by accident but not a GL sign, and that strat shows serious confidence in strats
Overcooked the water transition on Evac, overly creative
Was most people's initial idea, could have been a GL player as well but now we saw Viper (2 Vipers actually) and Jordan so no reason to doubt. Can still marginally be ACCM I think, but probably Vinch.
Jadwiga = Barles
Nobody early banned Islands except Selim, but at least that's a player who did not let Islands (rules out several players)
Lost all standard land maps to MbL but was competent all around
Has monk control groups (not the only one, but Barles has them)
Vietnamese on Arabia, Saracens in draft played on a "standard-ish" way, Barles civ draft
Stonewalls on Bay (not a hard tell, 4 players did stonewall at some point, but matches him more than some others)
No other real Barles match imo
Initially refused to see Barles because of poor resistance to a "central" clown push game 1 which felt pretty standard for BF, which made me think this guy could not be a BF guy, but probably Game 1 nerves
Selim = Yo
Spanish strat on the closed map, pure Yo
Only Mudflow firstpick, Yo's main HM in HC4
General lategame resilience, when opponent is DauT, it was the strongest fight we've seen a losing player consistently put in lategame
Not the fastest player, but not a weak player
I can see the point for it being ACCM, and Yo being either a top player I missed (seems a weak attempt at having no upset but ok) or Sigismund (some Chinese community guess and would not be entirely impossible if he has an abysmal day, more on that when we talk Sigismund)
Sigismund = ACCM
Damn it right? Now we're entering process of elimination entirely
Out of the 6 remaining heroes, Sigismund was the most creative in terms of strats, and also the slowest, with some dubious micro at several points. The other 5 players remaining are all fast, and of them only Viper is known to be especially creative and out of the box (and this isn't Viper)
I said after the set that Sigismund matched nobody and was probably a player on an offday
Nobody matches ACCM, we got no real lategame grinder apart from Selim, especially on that expected ACCM level (no Sumanguru does not match ACCM either)
My call is that Selim and Sigismund are Yo and ACCM, most likely the way I put them, and that Sigismund was sick/unwell/had a bad day, which explains the lack of resistance in general. I don't see how it can be anyone else, except maybe Vinch also on a complete offday, and then ACCM is Gregory, as I said.
Those are the 11 players I think I'll "lock" (as either I'm certain, or they are out and are in pairs with other eliminated players so I can't really get more data anyway)
It leaves Viper, Sebastian, Hearttt, Liereyy and Sitaux, for Sumanguru, Khosrau, Alfred, Jan and Alexios.
I'm fairly conviced Sumanguru and Alexios are Hearttt and Liereyy, with Sumanguru being Hearttt and Alexios being Liereyy, but good thing is that I don't have to lock this "pair" as they both are in quarters.
I won't go too deep into the suppositions, but for me we clearly saw 2 players with some credible Viper tendencies.
Personally my call is Viper=Jan and Sebastian=Khosrau, which probably leaves Sitaux as Alfred
I can see the reasons for Viper=Khosrau, Sitaux=Jan (there is a perfect match in draft, I just don't see those strats from Sitaux), Sebastian=Alfred, which is the Margou call
I hope quarters unlock that for me.
As for Jordan:
What do you make of the monk control group of Sumanguru game 2? Jordan never displayed that and is not active enough to incorporate that in his style.
What do you make of the map bans and picks?
But Jordan literally turboed to 60 farms full paladin flood in the 2 mins breathing time Mihai gave him as he upped. Its not really a lack of transition when you end up reaching Paladins against Conqs while having 2 forward castles on your face. He even ate tons of mangonel shots on his skirms, another fact proving he was fully focused on macroI'd also call the lack of anticipation in the transition in early imp on Slopes pretty weak for Jordan who tends to excel in transitions, but a softer hint.
I'd say Jordan pretty much won the High Tides with his full focus on land 11. Go watch the game and you will see Mihai had 25 mins of idle eco. Mihai was literally up 7 fishing ships and was behind in res collected than the player who fully gave up water and refused to contest it 11. And the castle age timing is devastating on High Tides, so many matches just end with it.What do you make of the relative weakness on water compared to his opponent on Bay and choice to go all-in on land on High Tides while refusing the water contest?
What do you make of the High Tides game? Peak Jordan never had such games, now you expect rusty Jordan to display such insane feudal pressure?
Keep in mind he could also want to avoid Campy maps and hence banned Islands and Quarry, and probably didn't want to get clowned on Hidden Forts. He picked Arabia and Gold Rush, two standard maps, and the Elite Battle Elephant play on Gold Rush screamed Jordan to me. Very few players with that style would go for Elephants there. It is definitely someone who is top 4-8Sumanguru's draft does not remotely resemble Jordan's. If you look at the past NAC, he had a strong preference for closed maps like Copenhagen and Brood Wars, and in Hidden Cup 4 every round he first picked islands. This combo is only present with Robert Guiscard. I'm fairly convinced Pachacuti is Ganji based on both the map draft and gameplay.
Honestly, Sumanguru feels like either Barles, Sitaux, or Heartt to me (slightly more inclined towards Barles).
I'd say mostly that this Malay fishtrap masterpiece and the balls to do it in an S-tier tournament, also adding the quick gates around castles, are extremely strong Viper vibes. Can accept Sitaux doing them but it's quintessential Viper.I like your list, my only problem is the chinese community allegedly recognized Sigismund as Yo with a very high certainty. I'd love to hear more details about this by the way.
Why Jan's strats seems wierd for you for sitaux ?
Also very important guys: stay umble 11
Zizka is definitely Heart. Just from the first engagement, the way he dived with his skirms onto the archer. Heart loves his spear skirm opening. In G2 as well, the emphasis on micro. The preferred malay pick on Cross from Qualifiers.I'm catching up on Jan Zizka vs Alpaca, after game 1...Why are we not considering Hera for Zizka?
What a sick display of skill in game 1......
Zizka is definitely Heart. Just from the first engagement, the way he dived with his skirms onto the archer. Heart loves his spear skirm opening. In G2 as well, the emphasis on micro. The preferred malay pick on Cross from Qualifiers.
I know they are similar players, but the more you look at it, you can see a bit of a flawed Hera. Like Zizka was quite lucky not to downright lose the game to the xbow timing because of how exposed his gold was. Though I was amazed by how he lost 0 vils there, but you know if this was Hera, he would never ever risk that forward gold the way Jan did. Hera has sharpened his gameplay to the extent that he leaves nothing to luck
That moment proved this was Heart over Hera for me. Just the reaction, you could tell he was hurt a bit and got super super anxious, immediately dropping the TC. In the current form that Hera is, he is unshakable, especially on Arabia. I could see Heart as Jan dropping the game on that spot, but I don't see Hera losing a arabia like map. Just see the Vasco De Game G1 on Slopes, Perfect Ethiopians play from Hera exactly the way he plays on ladder. 3 arch sneak attempt, immediate run back when saw the enemy range, walls up, farms to a faster castle time and destroys with the first engagement of the game. Boom behind. 0 mistakes. Thats Hera for you
he is Alexios. Im sold from the fact he banned Armenians and Georgians. And I made a good difference point between themMy first inkling for Vasco was Liereyy...It's just that I don't think Hera likes to go all-in siege so early on like in that game?
But yeah I can obviously see Hera being Vasco.
It's so hard to place Liereyy because we don't know how much he practiced for this...A well practiced Liereyy with a patch that allows for xbow play can look pretty unbeatable too...
he is Alexios. Im sold from the fact he banned Armenians and Georgians. And I made a good difference point between them
The more I think about this, the more I find myself agreeing that Alpaca was Sebastian. In addition to the points you mentioned like the Huns pick on cross, both drafted Berbers. Alpaca used it on Evacuation and although the map went unplayed for Bureau it was most likely going to be Berbers Evacuation and Gurjaras Arabia if it got to game 7. Alpaca's strat on Bay was very similar to Jean Bureau: ultra fast 8min Feudal to control water while delaying the opponent dock, albeit with a different civ. It's entirely possible that I'm wrong: Alpaca banned Slopes after all, but no other player seems to fit Sebastian this well.Alfred The Alpaca was indeed Sebastian. The 1 TC Xbow + mangonel push with NO archer armor upgrades is something only 2 real players would do. Liereyy and Sebastian. Now I am currently watching the set to prove which one of the two is them for sure. But, Alfred picked Huns on Cross, another indicator of Sebastian being teammates with Mihai.
Eh I am joking a bit but it would be so much like him 11 he didn't have the DLC in NAC iirc. The bigger reason however is I don't think we saw him anywhere else. His level has considerably dropped recently, as much as people think him and Hera are similar players stylistically, Vasco De Gama was in another league. He gave his opponent no chance at all, like almost to the extent of mocking him. Thats a very confident Hera for sure. Liereyy felt the closest to Alexios stylistically, and the Fast Imp Strat on Bypass tells me it is him and Hera as practice partners.why do you think Liereyy would ban those? cause you think he didn't have time to practice them?
I don't agree with many of your calls @kalpit00 but completely agree on your reasoning for Liereyy and Hera based on use of unit in feudal.
Just wanted to say that at some point (prolly on the last day during the filler content if my memory serves right) someone clarified that Liereyy in fact did have the DLC. The whole thing was excellent clickbait by the NAC production team.Eh I am joking a bit but it would be so much like him 11 he didn't have the DLC in NAC iirc.
Eh I am joking a bit but it would be so much like him 11 he didn't have the DLC in NAC iirc. The bigger reason however is I don't think we saw him anywhere else. His level has considerably dropped recently, as much as people think him and Hera are similar players stylistically, Vasco De Gama was in another league. He gave his opponent no chance at all, like almost to the extent of mocking him. Thats a very confident Hera for sure. Liereyy felt the closest to Alexios stylistically, and the Fast Imp Strat on Bypass tells me it is him and Hera as practice partners.
lets see
Just wanted to say that at some point (prolly on the last day during the filler content if my memory serves right) someone clarified that Liereyy in fact did have the DLC. The whole thing was excellent clickbait by the NAC production team.
Ahh okok my bad then.Fairly sure that Liereyy not having the DLC civs was just a meme started by casters that production ended up embracing haha
But agree with the rest of your post, would be a bit weird to see such a dominant Liereyy only a few weeks after NAC...
Liereyy banned Armenians, Georgians and Bohemians consistently in NAC, three bans of Alexios. Style generally matches imo, the Cross game has all the qualities and the flaws of NAC Liereyy imo.why do you think Liereyy would ban those? cause you think he didn't have time to practice them?
I think he can be Alfred, fast archer micro, competent on water, extremely tight and well executed build (the 18 pop up on Bay).I'm surprised we can't be 100% sure who is Sitaux, I though we would recognize him a lot better. It means if he is Jadwiga he lost a tight set against MBL, and if he is Jan Zizka he played really well against a strong opponent. I'm not too sure which other options people have for Sitaux ? this way I could compare details between all options. On top of my head I think I remember Jadwiga didn't do at all the sitaux houses and that could be an interesting element; that's why I originally ruled him out.
Khosrau is really the other option, but I'm leaning more and more into this.no other player seems to fit Sebastian this well.